Saturday, April 19, 2008

The Safest Place on the Whole Battlefield; Right Smack Dab in the Middle

I'll keep this observation brief.

I have noticed in recent days that Hillary is pulling her campaign more into the middle ground. Normally, a candidate must pander to the base as much as possible through the primaries; then, when the party nominations are secured, a pullback to more "moderate" positions is attempted.

Obama, true to form, has been shooting himself in the proverbial foot, again and again, from with whom he chooses to associate, to "embittered" comments regarding the populace in the yet-to-come primaries, and each time he has used his powers of oratory and rebounded most skilfully. However, with each "scandalous" moment, his rebounds have become increasingly slow.

This can mean two things, and most likely both: one, Hillary is attempting to break free from Obama politically once and for all, and distance herself as much as possible leading into the final primaries; two, which ties into the first a bit, she feels the nomination drawing nigh and is beginning a larger-scale campaign to set the tone for the next six and a half months. How much does she have to lose?

According to Real Clear Politics, she trails Obama by only 140 delegates, and has a 5.7% lead over him heading into the Pennsylvania primaries. I am not sure that anyone aside from the Almighty completely understands how the Democratic system functions (if, indeed, one could call it "functioning"), but she has a very realistic chance of overtaking, screeching into the convention by just the enamel on her teeth.

However, she trails badly in North Carolina polling...by a devastating 14.5%

Again, an observation, take it for what you may; but I find it fascinating.

No comments: